For almost exactly a year now, the Bundesliga has been played in front of empty stands and without fans due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Increasingly, the view is spreading that this translates into a lower home field advantage. In the course of this, "Deutschlandfunk" has now interviewed Prof. Dr. Martin Lames, head of the Chair of Performance Analysis and Sports Informatics, about this. This research question was also systematically investigated and confirmed as part of a bachelor thesis by Florian Bäzner.
"The result profile, i.e. the mix of home wins, draws, and away wins, has clearly changed in that home wins have decreased by more than 15 percent, while away wins have increased by the same proportion," Prof. Lames told "Deutschlandfunk". "This is true both in a long-term comparison, as well as in the comparison of the first period of the season 19/20 with spectators to the second without spectators."
Before the pandemic, the home team still won almost half of the games, while the away team won only about a third of the games. That statistic has now flipped, with the host team finishing with a win in only about a third of its home games, while the visiting team is now successful nearly 40 percent of the time.
"If you take a closer look at the changed result profile, you find that it is mainly due to declines in home wins by table-topping inferiors against table-topping superior guests," Prof. Lames said, explaining the findings. "If you look even closer, games in which the home team turns around a deficit against teams superior in the table have become particularly rare in ghost games."
Overall, then, matches without fans have a major impact on the results of the Bundesliga, which could well have more profound implications, according to Prof. Lames: "Moreover, this may even diminish interest in the league or in soccer in general, since it is partly fed by the surprises and sensational comebacks of the underdogs, and increased predictability of victories by the big, financially strong clubs is rather detrimental to interest."
To the interview as a podcast on the homepage of „Deutschlandfunk“ radio
To the homepage of the Chair of Performance Analysis and Sports Informatics
Contact:
Prof. Dr. Martin Lames
Chair of Performance Analysis and Sports Informatics
Georg-Brauchle-Ring 60/62
80992 München
phone: 089 289 24500
e-mail: Martin.Lames(at)tum.de
Text: Romy Schwaiger
Photo: private