Do beach volleyball players perceive the playing strength and short-term changes in the playing strength of their opponents at all and adjust their serving decisions accordingly? These questions were answered by the Chair of Performance Analysis and Sports Informatics in a recent study.
The study was conducted by Dr. Daniel Link, private lecturer at the Chair of Performance Analysis and Sports Informatics. The work has now been published under the title "Experts use base rates in real-world sequential decisions" in the "Psychonomic Bulletin & Review". The journal has an impact factor of 5.536.
The study was conducted as part of a BISp project entitled "Sequential decisions in beach volleyball: an integrative approach to psychological research and match observation". This is being conducted in collaboration with the Psychological Institute of the German Sport University Cologne, whose director Prof. Dr. Dr. Markus Raab is also an author of the publication. "In the project, we are investigating which strategies beach volleyball players use when making selection decisions," explains PD Dr. Link. The project is based on data from more than 1,300 matches of the world's top players, showing decision-making behavior of experts in a natural and competitive setting. In addition, experimental studies with top athletes of the German Volleyball Association (DVV) will be conducted to help optimize sequence decisions in serving in view of the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris.
"The publication of partial results from this project in a recognized journal of experimental psychology shows that we can use data sets from sports to make contributions to theory building in the basic sciences," explains PD Dr. Link. In this case, it is research into the so-called prevalence error ("base rate fallacy"). This is a cognitive bias that arises when the prevalence ("base rate") of an event is not or not adequately considered in a decision. "We were able to show in the paper that experts, in our case professional beach volleyball players, are sensitive to the base rate of their opponents and adjust their tactical decisions," adds PD Dr. Link. This is in contrast to classical experimental findings in psychology and is likely to find its way into the professional discussion there.
To the article „Experts use base rates in real-world sequential decisions” in the journal „Psychonomic Bulletin & Review”
To the homepage of the Chair of Performance Analysis and Sports Informatics
Contact:
PD Dr. Daniel Link
Chair of Performance Analysis and Sports Informatics
Georg-Brauchle-Ring 60/62
80992 München
phone: 089 289 24498
e-mail: Daniel.Link(at)tum.de
Text: Romy Schwaiger
Photos: Pixabay/"Psychonomic Bulletin & Review"/private